IN FOCUS: The rise and rise (and rise) of Apple's iOS

IN FOCUS: The rise and rise (and rise) of Apple's iOS

Apple's iOS is poised to take over mainstream computing

When the first iOS gadget shipped in 2007, The New York Times' David Pogue published a list of questions about the new iPhone. The last question on the list was: " Who on earth would buy this thing ?"

It's a question nobody would ask today. The phone, and Apple 's other mobile devices that run the iOS are succeeding beyond anyone's predictions. Apple says the iOS is currently installed on more than 200 million devices .

Another small thing happened in 2007 that has become a big thing: Apple filed a patent request for the capacitive touch screen used by the iPhone , iPad and, in fact, by nearly all of Apple's competitors in the market. That patent was granted this week.

One possible outcome of the inevitable court cases to come is that competitors may have to pay Apple a licensing fee for every non-Apple smartphone or tablet shipped.

Since its 2007 launch, there has always been a lot of hype around the iPhone far beyond actual market share. The many brands that run the Android OS collectively own more market share both globally and in the U.S. than the iPhone. And internationally, handsets from giants like Nokia have maintained more sales than those from Apple.

But all this appears to be changing. In the first quarter of this year, Android phone market share declined nearly 3%, while iOS's share rose by more than 12% . Android still has nearly half the smartphone market, and Apple significantly less than that (about 30%.)

These changing fortunes could represent a temporary blip caused by Apple's availability on Verizon. Or it could be a trend.

Another possible trend is the decline and fall of Nokia. That company's smartphone handset market share dropped from 24% to 16% in one year. Apple remained at 17% share while the overall pie grew significantly.

When the iPhone shipped in 2007, nobody -- and I mean nobody -- predicted that Apple would sell more handsets worldwide than Nokia within four years.

A recent survey measuring Web traffic by various devices found that some 97% of all tablet traffic in the United States comes from iPads . And if you think that's high, the number is 100% in Japan and 99% in the UK. (The global average is 89%.)

All these market share and traffic numbers mask a stark business reality: Apple makes vastly more money from mobile devices than its competitors.

Firstly, Apple makes money from handsets, which Google no longer sells. Secondly, Apple makes money from apps -- far more per app than any other platform, and far more apps. For example, last year Google earned about $102 million from apps sales, while Apple raked in $1.7 billion .

Apple's iOS is even more profitable than Microsoft Windows -- 2.3 times higher.

App developers point out that iOS is easier to develop for and monetize than the Google Android platform, and presumably other competitors as well.

The success of iOS devices thus far is nothing compared with what's coming. One report says Apple has ordered two manufacturers to build enough iPhone 5 handsets to sell 15 million in the first month of sales . The new phone is expected to launch in August or September.

A study coming from the Yankee Group next month finds that about 40% of all smartphone buyers in Europe say they intend to buy an iPhone next time they buy a phone.

A reasonably credible rumor from a blogger in China says that China's biggest carrier, China Mobile, will soon announce a deal to sell the iPhone 5 .

The current iPhone is available in China only from the No. 2 carrier. Such an announcement would suggest a radical increase in iPhone sales in the world's largest country, and one with an incredible 910 million mobile phone subscribers , where the iPhone is very popular.

Apple currently dominates the tablet market, having sold 25 million iPads to date and possibly over 14 million more iPads in the third quarter . But one analyst believes Apple will sell a billion of them .

OK, OK. It's clear that Apple's iOS is beyond successful, and threatens to dominate global mobile sales in the foreseeable future.

The reason this is significant is that as Apple comes to dominate mobile computing, mobile computing increasingly dominates computing in general.

Over the next five years, we'll see more people using phones and tablets as their main computing device. And I think we can also expect to see current desktop platforms like Mac OS X, Windows and Linux replaced by touch-friendly interfaces like iOS, Android, Metro and so on.

In other words, Apple's iOS is poised to take over mainstream computing.

Mike Elgan writes about technology and tech culture. Contact and learn more about Mike at , or subscribe to his free e-mail newsletter, Mike's List .

Read more about mobile oses in Computerworld's Mobile OSes Topic Center.

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Tags mobileApplesoftwareapplicationstelecommunicationMobile operating systemsMobile and WirelessMobile Apps and ServicesMobile OSesThe New York Times


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