Projecting into the noughties

"The two things that will become readily available very soon are wireless and networking connections, which will make a big difference in the business sector," IDT's Wilkins concurred. "Innovative solutions, such as InFocus' USB-connectable projectors, which will be released later this year, are definitely going to be big.

"The other trend that is going to have an impact is trying to get the price of lamp replacement down. Right now, we have lamps that last up to 4000 hours [where they used to last between 1000 and 1500 hours]. This reduces their running costs over time, and offers a big incentive to business in terms of efficiency."

However, it is in the consumer space where the biggest growth spike is likely to occur in the not-so-distant future. Although the projector market is facing big challenges in the consumer space, the rise of the ultraportable projector is expected to give a whole new meaning to projecting.

"The next big wave in projecting is going to smaller and smaller projectors for gaming and personal use," Wilkins said. "These units will be pocket-size projectors, that will work with iPods and PlayStations and project on the wall. Consumer electronics is where the volume is going to be."

AV and IT

The convergence between the IT, consumer electronics and audiovisual markets has not been as quick as the industry expected. But Mitsubishi Australia's product manager for visual information systems, Matthew Hanna, reckoned growth in the uptake of Windows Vista will likely speed up demand for widescreen projectors.

"A trend we're starting to see is in the square image projectors space, where the market is shifting towards widescreen," Hanna said. "The crossover between IT and AV is definitely driving a need for a widescreen projector, and in the home market we're seeing this trend driven by digital TV and DVD."

In the meantime, the choice between plasma/LCD televisions versus home theatres armed with wall projectors remains the name of the game in the consumer market. Vendors and analysts generally agree the plasma/LCD explosion has yet to slow down, and projectors are not likely to make a significant dent in their home entertainment march. The fact that plasma/LCD TVs continue to get cheaper represents a big threat for the home theatre segment, taking away those customers who would possibly buy a projector for the cinema experience.

However, buying a projector as an additional item for the home-viewing experience is something that remains almost de rigeur at the higher end of the consumer market.

"Mr or Mrs Smith, the home market purchasers, still have very little understanding of what is required for a projector to be useful to them" Epson's Pleasants said. "So, in the home market, the home theatre segment remains a big opportunity. There is a move towards having a dedicated room or the home theatre as a separate space.

Those people are generally in the higher socio-economic group and are willing to spend a lot of money on the technology, the consultation and installation. Obviously, resellers have to be skilled and educated in that area, but there is a lot of margin in that sort of service."

Pep-talk aside, things are going to get worse before they get better. Innovation-driven demand is on the horizon, but in the projectors market, the user is likely to remain the net winner of the sales game for a couple of years to come. So, while waiting for that next big thing, write that letter from the future to the old Greek philosopher and let him know that while it may not be the same river as the one you faced last year, the projectors market is certainly projecting a sense of deja vu.