Menu
PC chip recovery isn't here just yet

PC chip recovery isn't here just yet

The two largest makers of PC microprocessors in the US inched up revenue expectations for the fourth quarter on Thursday, celebrating a return to normal PC buying trends. But industry analysts aren't suggesting semiconductor manufacturers break out the champagne just yet.

Intel now expects revenue of between $US6.7 billion and $6.9 billion for the three months to December 29, up from earlier expectations of between $6.2 billion and $6.8 billion. Meanwhile, Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) said it expects revenue to be up 10 per cent or more for the current quarter -- its previous high-end expectation was for a 10 per cent increase.

However, analysts aren't ready to bet that the tough times for chip makers are over. "Things are what they said, which is just 'better than expected'," said Dean McCarron, an analyst with Arizona-based Mercury Research. "What it's really saying is that we had a pessimistic quarter that people did their forecasts out of."

McCarron said he thinks the market has seen its lowest point, but recovery isn't just around the corner. "I still haven't changed my opinion that recovery won't happen until the second half of next year," he said. "I don't think this is necessarily evidence of a turnaround, but I don't think there's any question that the PC chip market hit bottom some time between the second and third quarter."

Traditionally, the fourth quarter has been driven by consumer buying more than by sales to businesses. Microsoft released Windows XP during the fourth quarter, and its appearance on the horizon probably pushed consumer purchases back to later in the year, said Nathan Brookwood, principal analyst with California-based Insight 64.

"Certainly, folks earlier in the year, if they were paying attention, may have deferred purchases because they knew Windows XP was coming," he said.

Windows XP may not have spurred more consumers to buy PCs, McCarron said, but users who were planning on buying a PC may have pushed off their purchase until after the operating system's October release. In addition, most people who wanted Windows XP probably bought it on a new PC rather than upgrading an old machine, he said.

In addition, faster PC chips may be causing another wave of PC upgrades, he said. "Finally, we're at the point where people who bought computers in 1999 are beginning to feel that their machines are outdated," he said. "If you bought a machine then, odds are it was a 500MHz machine; now people are talking about 1.5GHz to 2GHz machines," he said.

Even if the current quarter does mark a return to traditional buying trends, chip sales are likely to take a dip in the first quarter of 2002, analysts said.

"Generally, following a strong fourth quarter, the first quarter falls off," Brookwood said. "But there was some suggestion from Intel yesterday that because of some shortages, there may be some backlog of orders on the books," he said. "That would be a good boost for the first quarter."

Kevin Krewell, a senior analyst with MicroDesign Resources, agreed. "There have been exceptions when the year before was a little soft, but in this case I expect the first quarter to be down a little from the fourth quarter of this year," he said.

Nevertheless, most analysts agreed that the microprocessor industry -- perhaps even the PC industry as a whole -- is probably at the beginning of a gradual upswing.

"I suspect that it's just beginning now. Barring something that drives PC memory prices up, people will find PC prices very attractive for the next 12 months," Brookwood said.

Follow Us

Join the ARN newsletter!

Error: Please check your email address.

Upcoming

Slideshows

In Pictures: Houston, we have a bug - 9 famous software glitches in space

In Pictures: Houston, we have a bug - 9 famous software glitches in space

There’s never a good time to run into software bugs, but some times are worse than others - like during a mission to space. Spacecraft of all shapes and sizes rely heavily on software to complete their objectives. But those missions can be quickly ended by the simplest of human errors when writing code. The omission of an overbar here or overflow error checking code there can mean the difference between success or failure, not to mention the loss of hundreds of millions of dollars, years of work and, on manned missions, human life. Use the arrows above to read about 9 examples that show that, despite the care with which these systems are built, bugs have occurred in spacecraft software since we started to fling rockets into space - and will, no doubt, continue to crop up.

In Pictures: Houston, we have a bug - 9 famous software glitches in space
IN PICTURES: Windows 10 Sydney launch

IN PICTURES: Windows 10 Sydney launch

Tech lovers and party-goers alike headed down to Mrs Macquarie's Chair to be part of the world-first Windows 10 Launch Party. The night featured a presentation by Microsoft Australia managing director, Pip Marlow, DJs, live demonstrations and digital artistry by Lister.

IN PICTURES: Windows 10 Sydney launch

iasset.com is a channel management ecosystem that automates all major aspects of the entire sales, marketing and service process, including data tracking, integrated learning, knowledge management and product lifecycle management.

Show Comments