ARN

Wireless the achilles heel for NBN: Yay or nay?

Market research firm predicts wireless will steal potential NBN customers but industry analysts disagree

Wireless broadband could prove a formidable opponent for the National Broadband Network (NBN) according to analyst firm, Frost & Sullivan, but industry analysts disagree.

The $43 billion NBN was announced early last month, with the Government opting to establish its own company to build the ambitious broadband infrastructure.

In a report titled, Australia’s National Broadband Network – Will the massive investment pay off?, Frost & Sullivan outlined a number of challenges that will affect the proposed national network, including the increase in fixed line users migrating to wireless broadband. This, the analyst firm conjectured, will be an impediment to consumer NBN adoption in the telecommunications sector.

“While the NBN will be viable for wider application, in terms of the telecommunications sector, I think the growth for wireless will continue and that will shave a significant amount of the NBN’s potential customer base,” Frost & Sullivan senior research manager, Phil Harpur, told ARN.

Frost & Sullivan estimates that by 2013, approximately 30 per cent of all broadband users will be reliant on wireless access services.

While Gartner enterprise mobility research director, Robin Simpson, agrees with the statistic, he expects wireless broadband users to also have fixed-line accounts.

“The challenge is the limited nature of wireless as opposed to the unlimited potential of optic fibre,” he said. “Speed is an issue since, at the moment, the fastest speed you can achieve with wireless is around 21Mbps whereas the NBN fibre infrastructure can promise at least 100Mbps if not more.

“Once customers experience this high speed, it will probably make wireless look less attractive.”

Simpson also dismissed mobile broadband as a long term competitor for fibre due to the way it delegates bandwidth.

“The shared structure of wireless means that if the technology becomes popular within one geographic area, the performance for all individuals will decrease,” he said. “But with the proposed fibre-to-the-premise structure, every customer gets their own high speed connection without having to split bandwidth with others.”

Telco analyst, Paul Budde, also contested Frost & Sullivan’s claim.

“Short term, wireless will certainly grow since the NBN is still years away,” he said. “But long term, it is like comparing apples with oranges. They both have a role to play.”

While Simpson did not see wireless as an opposition for the NBN, he anticipates the national network will promote mobile broadband consumption.

“The NBN provides a good back haul technology for wireless base stations so I won’t be surprised to see more Wi-Fi hotspots, which are expensive to set up with copper lines,” he said. “I really think we will get a growth in Wi-Fi and wireless broadband because it will be cheaper to connect base stations via the NBN.”

For a more comprehensive overview of the NBN, please visit our NBN: A timeline slideshow.

Come socialise with us! Facebook | LinkedIn

More about: ARN, Billion, Frost & Sullivan, Gartner, Promise, Speed, VIA
References show all

Comments

1

Anonymous

Mon 11/05/2009 - 20:57

R&D will help wireless

What happens if there are actually developments in terms of faster speeds with wireless going forward? Not sure if the analysts have factored that into their arguments

2

Anonmous

Mon 11/05/2009 - 21:01

I don't see Wireless being a major competitor, but rather working with the Fixed line business.

3

Anonymous

Mon 11/05/2009 - 21:53

Wireless currently can't be a replacement

I love how people keep throwing "speed" out there as the only factor to look at when it comes to wireless vs fiber.

To have scalable infrastructure you need speed, bandwidth, low latency, and ease of upgrade (plus other factors, but we'll stick with those).

Fiber has all of those. The fiber itself doesn't need to be replaced - just the nodes or software to upgrade them.

Wireless currently has one of those (speed) - and even that is debatable. With R&D you might be able to improve the latency and increase the upgradability, but not the bandwidth. Then if you actually CAN increase the bandwidth, you still need fiber backhaul to connect it all.

Wireless can/should only be an addition to fiber - not a competitor.

4

Kevmeister

Mon 11/05/2009 - 22:08

If R&D helps wireless, it'll probably help Fibre, too

Current splitter technology may also advance as wireless advances, so the proposed 100Mbits achievable today could be 500Mbits or 1Gbps in 8 years time.

Wireless will always have latency, bandwidth, speed, security and spectrum issues (more speed, more users = more radio spectrum required) compared to fibre.

5

Shannon

Mon 11/05/2009 - 23:07

No thanks to wireless.

I worked for a wireless ISP for 5 years - I can assure you, while it's a nice augmentation to fixed land wire/fiber it is NO substitute, it may be able to offer superior flexibility but it's a long way off offering the reliability and performance (not just in throughput but latency) of cabled systems.

Edit: Why is that post spam?

6

peterh_oz

Tue 12/05/2009 - 02:02

Wireless?

Wireless is a competitor to dial-up and ADSL1, not cable or ADSL2 or Fibre.

Also, how long will the copper network be maintained? We used to have train lines throughout rural areas, but eventually they were removed and replaced by private cars and buses and semis. The copper will also be replace done day.

People paying $20 per month on a 3G wireless plan were never going to get anything more than a $30 512/128 ADSL1 plan. They are the non-techs, those who "read emails and the occasional web page". Those people are not going to switch to fibre and VoIP. Some of them are still on pre-paid dial-up using Windows98 PCs. And I'm not exaggerating - my aunt is one of them!

Peter H
www.seeknbuy.com.au
$15 cashback on new Broadband (ADSL/ADSL2/NADSL/3G-HSPA)
100 free Local & National calls every month on every residential plan

7

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 07:38

For many wireless is all they have

One of the reasons for the popularity of wireless is the lack of an alternative. Many new development areas do not have the option of copper or cable connections.

8

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 08:05

When will people realise that there is no point giving everyone 100mbit connections if the lines into our country cannot support them.

Sure it will be great for local content. Though international will remain unchanged. I have a 20mbit connection right now and on average use about 10% of it. Simply because the connections to overseas sites are so woeful.

9

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 10:10

Short sighted arguments

"When will people realise that there is no point giving everyone 100mbit connections if the lines into our country cannot support them.

Sure it will be great for local content. Though international will remain unchanged. I have a 20mbit connection right now and on average use about 10% of it. Simply because the connections to overseas sites are so woeful."

When will people realise that just because the infrastructure isn't there to take full advantage of FTTH rignt now, that's not a reason to not go ahead with it. These short sighted views continue to astonish me...it's like if back in the day, we didn't bother to link cities with telephone lines, because most people didn't have a home phone.

Surely there's the chance that by having a strong and fast national network, that the amount of content hosted locally will increase, reducing our reliance on international links. And to infer that international links won't gain any more capacity is just silly.

Just because most people aren't able to take full advantage of a fast fibre connection right now - before any cable has even been laid - isn't a reason to settle for a second best solution.

10

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 10:30

Not Short Sighted....

Can you supply stats that say we are going to hit a bandwidth issue in the near future? From what I have seen/read the only issues usually pertain to the cable being damaged - not one of bandwidth. Plus we have more lines coming from O/S and as bandwidth within the county increase so will the lines coming in and out.

Most of the traffic will be internal anyhow, so it it a moot point. The "average" user will be surfing for local news, products etc anyhow. Sometimes going O/S for downloads (many of which would be cached), purchases of goods (HTML type pages), and not much else.

Sure it will allow heavy users to get more from O/S but really it will not matter much in the long run.

As for Wireless "hurting" the NBN....pffffft obviously these analysts have never used wireless in any real world sense. Fixed line will always offer more in latency (gamers), speed (business, downloaders, uploaders), stability (everyone....unless you are with a crappy ISP of course). Would love to see who "payed" for the work done by these so called analysts.....

11

Kevmeister

Tue 12/05/2009 - 13:30

Speed, Bandwidth, and Utilisation

The argument that giving people 100Mbps broadband when the upstream pipes (particularly the international pipes) supposedly can't support it makes the presumption that everyone is going to be downloading at 100Mbps 24x7, when clearly that won't be the case (otherwise you'd need a 30 terabyte-per-month data plan).

But "fast" broadband, whether fast is 100Mbps or 50Mbps or possibly even 24Mbps (the max speed of ADSL2+) enables the introduction of new services and new service delivery models that are simply not possible in a timely fashion using slower speeds.

The argument that we should not try give households 100Mbps per second because the international links are too slow is akin to saying that households should not purchase cars because the roads would be too congested. It seems like a case of the tail wagging the dog.

Look at it this another way - a 56kbps dial-up modem can download 19Gb in a month running 24x7. Many home broadband users don't even have a 19Gb data cap, so in theory a dial-up modem should be good enough for them, shouldn't it? Well, no, it isn't, because an analysis based purely on the maximum carrying capacity of the pipe doesn't address the desire for timeliness. People want more speed because it means less waiting. Sure the line might be idle 95% of the day, but when it is called upon to deliver certain services such as Video on Demand that's when we'll see the benefits of its speed. Exactly why many people now choose broadband over dial-up.

100Mbps may be "more than necessary" at the present time for a typical home user, and that might lead us to think that ADSL2+ is still "good enough". But at least FTTP will deliver consistent speeds to everyone in its coverage area, unlike the distance-dependent ADSL technologies where there are still "haves" and "have nots" in terms of actual speeds received. Headline ADSL2+ speeds might very well be 24Mbits/second, but in reality only a very small percentage of people receive this speed, and only about 50% of ADSL2+ users achieve > 12 Mbps.

I would much rather have the "problem" of working out how to acquire more international bandwidth to satisfy users, in combination with a world-class, proactive network such as the New NBN, than the other way around.

Finally, if your connections to overseas site are "so woeful", maybe you should be looking at your ISP rather than generalising this across the whole industry. I suffer no such problems with my ISP (Internode).

12

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 18:28

I totally agree with R&D... by the time and it takes to get this monstrosity of cable finalized technology may well make the whole thing look outdated and a big waste of time and money..

13

wies

Tue 12/05/2009 - 18:58

wireless vs fixed

please please tell me where in fairytale land you get wireless download speeds of 21mbps? in 2years of use if i can get mine to stay around 25 to 50 kbps im happy! at the moment i am on bended knee praying that the nbn gets here sooner than later.

14

Anonymous

Tue 12/05/2009 - 19:17

LTE offers over 300Mbit max speed and LTE-Advanced offers over a gigabit per second.

These are the wireless systems that will be deployed.

15

Anonymous

Wed 13/05/2009 - 19:25

Wireless + Fibre

The way to go is both a wireless and fibre network. The fibre network provides the speed required for high-bandwidth applications (iptv, etc..), including the speed required to intermediate POPs (for wireless towers, etc..). The wireless network then provides users with on-the-go access to the internet.

Now when coupled with mobile IPv6, this will allow users to seamlessly roam from their fibre service at home to the wireless network at will without dropping a single connection.

As mentioned before, yes there isn't enough international uplink capacity if we were to all go 100mbit. But what you will find is that we currently don't saturate this international capacity all the time at the moment. Now, when coupled with the fact that a business is not going to upgrade their network unless there is demand for it, why would a company operating a multi-million dollar international link want to invest more into something that could potentially just end up being dark fibre.

Using the NBN we need to create the demand for bigger uplinks, that way you give the operators a reason to upgrade their network. Since this extra capacity will be used.

Waiting for the uplinks to be upgraded first, is just a waste since it will never happen.

16

Anonymous

Tue 19/05/2009 - 18:32

@ Wireless + Fibre

Some of the posts in this thread seem to be making the usual mistake of relating future (10-20 years out) capacity needs to current usage, and then coming up with a wireless wonderland.

Wireless will continue to be what it is now - a useful and convenient ancilliary to backbone capacity. Yes, wireless technology will advance and provide greater bandwidth, but FTTP capacity will also increase over time to be the main channel.

We'll be using apps as yet unthought of with data rates likewise, and while wireless may indeed hit 1Gbps, by that time fibre should be a far more reliable and scalable 10-20Gbps. So fibre + wireless seems to be the only way to go.

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
Users posting comments agree to the ARN comments policy.
Login or register to link comments to your user profile, or you may also post a comment without being logged in.
Related Coverage
Related Whitepapers
Latest Stories
Community Comments
Tags: Budde, Frost & Sullivan, Gartner, NBN
ARN Directory | Distributors relevant to this article
Fortune Tec , Leader Computers , Westan , XiT Distribution
rhs_login_lockGet exclusive access to ARN's news, research and invitation only events.
ARN Distributor Directory
ARN Vendor Directory

iAsset is a channel management ecosystem that automates all major aspects of the entire sales,marketing and service process, including data tracking, integrated learning, knowledge management and product lifecycle management.